Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Norris 53.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 76.3%
Defensive zone
Norris 79.5%
Neutral zone
Norris 58.9%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Barkov
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Barkov
Norris
Last 9: Barkov 4-5 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
1
Barkov
Norris
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
0
Barkov
Norris
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
2
4
Barkov
Norris
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
53.6% (560)
+1.9%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
56.0% (109)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
53.1% (98)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Barkov
Norris
Home
56.4% (550)
53.6% (373)
Away
56.7% (476)
54.1% (394)
By Period
Barkov
Norris
P1
56.5%
61.8%
P2
55.5%
51.7%
P3
57.9%
49.8%
OT
50.0%
27.3%
Final 5 min
58.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:59 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:50 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Josh Norris |