Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Barkov wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Dowd 50.7% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 89.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 77.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.7%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Barkov
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Barkov
Dowd
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
1
Barkov
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Barkov
Dowd
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
55.2% (625)
-2.1%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
57.1% (7)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
38.2% (220)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barkov is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (488).
Barkov shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Barkov
Dowd
Home
58.1% (627)
53.7% (445)
Away
52.1% (705)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Barkov
Dowd
P1
53.3%
48.8%
P2
55.0%
49.3%
P3
56.0%
54.0%
OT
60.9%
44.4%
Final 5 min
55.5%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 19:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 15:04 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |