Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 33-18 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 94.0%
Defensive zone
Barkov 64.3%
Neutral zone
Barkov 67.3%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Barkov
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
18
(51 meetings)
33
18
Barkov
Dowd
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
22
3
Barkov
Dowd
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
8
Barkov
Dowd
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Barkov
Dowd
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (10,680)
52.4% (6,009)
+0.0%
Power Play
58.1% (2,623)
56.1% (164)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (1,272)
44.1% (1,635)
+3.7%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barkov is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,431).
Barkov shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Barkov
Dowd
Home
53.8% (7,227)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
52.2% (7,348)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Barkov
Dowd
P1
52.7%
51.7%
P2
53.4%
50.4%
P3
52.9%
50.3%
OT
53.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:27 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 19:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |