Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Barkov wins 59.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Dowd 49.9% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 96.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.6%
Neutral zone
Barkov 61.5%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Barkov
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Barkov
Dowd
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
7
0
Barkov
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Barkov
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
52.2% (835)
+3.3%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
60.0% (10)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
44.0% (350)
+2.7%
On even strength, Barkov has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barkov is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (403).
Barkov shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Barkov
Dowd
Home
56.4% (550)
51.5% (619)
Away
56.7% (476)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Barkov
Dowd
P1
56.5%
51.7%
P2
55.5%
51.6%
P3
57.9%
47.0%
OT
50.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
58.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:27 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |