Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Kuraly 53.7% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 86.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 53.1%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Barkov
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Barkov
Kuraly
Last 6: Barkov 4-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
0
Barkov
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Barkov
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
55.3% (515)
+0.2%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
55.6% (9)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
44.8% (58)
+1.9%
On power play, Barkov has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Barkov
Kuraly
Home
56.4% (550)
57.3% (293)
Away
56.7% (476)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Barkov
Kuraly
P1
56.5%
53.8%
P2
55.5%
51.5%
P3
57.9%
57.6%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:39 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:58 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:58 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |