Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Hertl 57.2% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Laferriere 62.2%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 82.8%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 78.5%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Laferriere
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Laferriere
Hertl
Last 7: Laferriere 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Laferriere
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Laferriere
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (322)
58.1% (823)
-16.2%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
56.2% (265)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (70)
62.9% (35)
-25.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Laferriere is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Laferriere shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Hertl
Home
40.3% (201)
59.7% (561)
Away
42.8% (208)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Laferriere
Hertl
P1
33.1%
51.6%
P2
40.0%
63.8%
P3
48.2%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
41.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
44.0%▲
40.0%
41.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |