Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Laferriere wins 40.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 42.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-13.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Laferriere 87.0%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 83.6%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 83.7%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Laferriere
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Laferriere
Hertl
Last 10: Laferriere 1-9 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Laferriere
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Laferriere
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Laferriere
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (424)
53.8% (8,268)
-12.3%
Power Play
50.0% (20)
59.3% (1,975)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
36.0% (75)
46.3% (806)
-10.3%
On even strength, Hertl has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Laferriere is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (380).
Laferriere shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Hertl
Home
40.2% (246)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
41.8% (273)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Laferriere
Hertl
P1
36.3%
53.6%
P2
39.3%
54.1%
P3
44.9%
55.3%
OT
100.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
39.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
44.0%▲
40.0%
41.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 02:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |