Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Laferriere wins 40.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.0% vs Hertl 54.1% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Laferriere 89.6%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 85.9%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 86.0%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 86.4%
86.4%
13.6%
Laferriere
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Laferriere
Hertl
Last 8: Laferriere 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Laferriere
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Laferriere
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Laferriere
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (342)
53.6% (8,077)
-10.9%
Power Play
47.1% (17)
59.7% (1,916)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
31.6% (57)
46.0% (793)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Laferriere is 40.4% vs left-shot opponents (319).
Laferriere shoots right. Hertl is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,031).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Hertl
Home
40.3% (181)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
42.1% (235)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Laferriere
Hertl
P1
39.4%
53.6%
P2
39.0%
53.9%
P3
43.0%
55.1%
OT
100.0%
46.8%
Final 5 min
35.6%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
32.0%▼
41.0%
41.3%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 02:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |