Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tuch wins 34.5% vs left-shot opponents — Cirelli shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 44.9% vs Cirelli 49.3% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 62.3%
Defensive zone
Tuch 53.6%
Neutral zone
Tuch 57.9%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Tuch
Cirelli
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Tuch
Cirelli
Last 9: Tuch 3-6 Cirelli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
0
1
Tuch
Cirelli
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tuch
Cirelli
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
3
Tuch
Cirelli
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Cirelli
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (65)
50.9% (709)
-9.4%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
43.4% (76)
-26.7%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
44.0% (150)
-2.8%
On power play, Cirelli has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cirelli shoots left. Tuch is 34.5% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Tuch shoots right. Cirelli is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Tuch
Cirelli
Home
34.8% (46)
50.6% (494)
Away
44.1% (59)
47.6% (441)
By Period
Tuch
Cirelli
P1
48.6%
52.3%
P2
43.9%
45.4%
P3
25.0%
49.5%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
40.0%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.0%
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 01:35 | Neutral | Alex Tuch |