Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Turcotte wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 66.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 70.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 58.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Last 5: Turcotte 2-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
2
0
Turcotte
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Turcotte
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Turcotte
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
48.9% (280)
+4.7%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
50.0% (6)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
47.2% (36)
+52.8%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Turcotte is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Turcotte shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Home
53.2% (263)
48.4% (190)
Away
55.0% (209)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Turcotte
Bjugstad
P1
57.2%
41.7%
P2
59.6%
56.6%
P3
44.1%
48.7%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 02:00 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |