Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 51.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 66.8%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 58.5%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Last 7: Turcotte 2-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
2
1
Turcotte
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Turcotte
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Turcotte
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
48.6% (6,634)
+2.5%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
55.2% (829)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.3% (614)
+55.7%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +55.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Turcotte is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Turcotte shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Bjugstad
Home
51.7% (346)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
51.2% (332)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Turcotte
Bjugstad
P1
53.8%
49.0%
P2
53.8%
49.1%
P3
46.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.6%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 02:00 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 11:37 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |