Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 54.6%). Look for Turcotte on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Sturm 53.6% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 69.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 80.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 60.2%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Turcotte
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Turcotte
Sturm
Last 5: Turcotte 4-1 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
3
0
Turcotte
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Turcotte
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
54.6% (271)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
54.4% (90)
+45.6%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +45.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Sturm
Home
53.2% (263)
53.0% (168)
Away
55.0% (209)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Turcotte
Sturm
P1
57.2%
58.2%
P2
59.6%
53.2%
P3
44.1%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 15:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:54 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |