Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 76.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 76.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.1%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Turcotte
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Turcotte
Sturm
Last 8: Turcotte 4-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
3
0
Turcotte
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Turcotte
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Turcotte
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
57.1% (2,719)
-6.0%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
61.3% (62)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
51.0% (498)
+49.0%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +49.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Turcotte is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Turcotte shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Sturm
Home
51.7% (346)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
51.2% (332)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Turcotte
Sturm
P1
53.8%
56.5%
P2
53.8%
54.9%
P3
46.5%
57.4%
Final 5 min
47.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 15:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:54 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:50 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:52 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |