Alexander Kerfoot vs Brock Nelson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 49.5% vs Nelson 50.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Kerfoot
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Kerfoot
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (97)
50.7% (879)
+1.9%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
58.6% (162)
+41.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
43.4% (198)
-18.4%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Kerfoot is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Kerfoot shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Nelson
Home
39.2% (51)
52.3% (621)
Away
57.1% (63)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Kerfoot
Nelson
P1
51.1%
48.4%
P2
51.6%
53.5%
P3
44.4%
50.3%
Final 5 min
55.0%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
49.1%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |