Alexander Kerfoot vs Brock Nelson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.3%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Kerfoot wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.8% vs Nelson 48.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Kerfoot leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Kerfoot
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
11
(23 meetings)
12
11
Kerfoot
Nelson
Last 10: Kerfoot 8-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
4
Kerfoot
Nelson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
6
4
Kerfoot
Nelson
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
4
3
Kerfoot
Nelson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,831)
47.9% (9,695)
+0.8%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
54.5% (1,132)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
43.8% (783)
-4.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Kerfoot is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,110).
Kerfoot shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Nelson
Home
51.0% (1,786)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
44.3% (1,699)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Kerfoot
Nelson
P1
47.2%
48.7%
P2
46.0%
48.5%
P3
50.4%
47.7%
OT
29.4%
45.6%
Final 5 min
48.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.7%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 04:26 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:10 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:14 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 16:00 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 16:42 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 2 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 2 | 03:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |