Alexander Kerfoot vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 49.5% vs McDavid 47.9% (+1.5%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 73.0%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 55.7%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 55.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Kerfoot
McDavid
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (97)
47.5% (650)
+5.1%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
48.6% (72)
+51.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
46.5% (43)
-21.5%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +51.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kerfoot is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Kerfoot shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
McDavid
Home
39.2% (51)
50.2% (400)
Away
57.1% (63)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Kerfoot
McDavid
P1
51.1%
47.5%
P2
51.6%
48.6%
P3
44.4%
46.7%
Final 5 min
55.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
49.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%