Alexander Kerfoot vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 49.5% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.2%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 57.4%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 52.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (97)
55.4% (826)
-2.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
57.9% (221)
+42.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
50.4% (129)
-25.4%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kerfoot is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Kerfoot shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Home
39.2% (51)
55.8% (579)
Away
57.1% (63)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
P1
51.1%
57.7%
P2
51.6%
54.8%
P3
44.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
55.0%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
49.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |