Alexander Kerfoot vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). Kerfoot wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 22-16 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 82.9%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 80.1%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 82.9%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
22
(38 meetings)
16
22
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kerfoot 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
12
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
10
6
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,831)
56.2% (15,260)
-7.5%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
58.8% (3,445)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
51.4% (2,811)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kerfoot is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,110).
Kerfoot shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Home
51.0% (1,786)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
44.3% (1,699)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
P1
47.2%
55.6%
P2
46.0%
57.0%
P3
50.4%
55.1%
OT
29.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |