Alexander Kerfoot vs Ryan O'Reilly
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kerfoot on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 48.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.4%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 69.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.3%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kerfoot 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
5
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
6
2
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (595)
55.0% (1,084)
-4.6%
Power Play
45.2% (124)
56.8% (303)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (143)
40.3% (149)
-1.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kerfoot is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Kerfoot shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Home
51.4% (467)
54.8% (759)
Away
43.5% (395)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
P1
49.1%
55.3%
P2
42.4%
51.9%
P3
52.7%
54.2%
OT
25.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |