Scouting Report
Alexander Wennberg holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Wennberg wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs Cates 45.5% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 59.0%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 60.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Wennberg
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Wennberg
Cates
Last 9: Wennberg 3-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Wennberg
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wennberg
2
1
Wennberg
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Wennberg
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (778)
45.4% (712)
+0.4%
Power Play
52.7% (239)
42.2% (102)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (169)
44.7% (47)
-7.4%
On power play, Wennberg has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Wennberg is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (832).
Wennberg shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Cates
Home
47.3% (607)
46.3% (423)
Away
44.6% (579)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Wennberg
Cates
P1
44.5%
46.3%
P2
46.2%
47.1%
P3
47.4%
42.1%
OT
36.4%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
46.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:17 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 05:53 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:38 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Noah Cates |