Scouting Report
Alexander Wennberg holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 45.9% vs Cates 40.4% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 54.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Wennberg
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Wennberg
Cates
Last 7: Wennberg 3-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wennberg
2
0
Wennberg
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Wennberg
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Wennberg
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (974)
40.4% (841)
+7.0%
Power Play
40.3% (154)
42.4% (66)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (247)
32.7% (147)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, Wennberg has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Wennberg is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (892).
Wennberg shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Cates
Home
46.1% (661)
38.2% (566)
Away
45.1% (714)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Wennberg
Cates
P1
48.5%
40.5%
P2
42.6%
42.4%
P3
46.3%
35.3%
OT
38.9%
42.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
45.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 01:53 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Noah Cates |