Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.3% vs O'Reilly 51.6% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Cogliano 81.4%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 91.0%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 87.4%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 85.9%
85.9%
14.1%
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cogliano 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Cogliano
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Cogliano
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Cogliano
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (810)
53.4% (770)
-11.8%
Power Play
43.9% (66)
55.6% (54)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (215)
44.4% (196)
-3.5%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cogliano is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cogliano shoots left. O'Reilly is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Home
43.7% (572)
53.5% (533)
Away
39.4% (536)
50.0% (492)
By Period
Cogliano
O'Reilly
P1
39.2%
50.8%
P2
37.4%
52.4%
P3
48.2%
51.6%
OT
38.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
41.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2011 | OT | 03:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 11:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 05:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 2 | 09:21 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 15:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 15:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 17:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 16:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |