Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +20.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cogliano wins 30.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 39.5% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-20.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.4%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 84.6%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 64.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Cogliano
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
35.8% (53)
55.0% (1,084)
-19.2%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (110)
40.3% (149)
-8.5%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cogliano is 30.6% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Cogliano shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Home
40.9% (88)
54.8% (759)
Away
24.0% (75)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Cogliano
O'Reilly
P1
38.2%
55.3%
P2
28.6%
51.9%
P3
34.2%
54.2%
OT
28.6%
64.7%
Final 5 min
40.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
33.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 15:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |