Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Copp on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 50.6% vs Nelson 51.9% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 59.7%
Defensive zone
Copp 66.9%
Neutral zone
Copp 56.3%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Copp
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Copp
Nelson
Last 8: Copp 3-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Copp
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Copp
2
1
Copp
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Copp
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (559)
51.3% (1,002)
-0.1%
Power Play
46.2% (26)
58.7% (126)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
51.9% (81)
-4.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Copp is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Copp shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Copp
Nelson
Home
52.0% (348)
52.5% (590)
Away
49.1% (279)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Copp
Nelson
P1
48.4%
50.5%
P2
50.2%
54.4%
P3
53.4%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
54.8%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
50.7%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:32 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |