Scouting Report
Andrew Copp holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.5% vs Nelson 50.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.5%
Neutral zone
Copp 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Copp
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Copp
Nelson
Last 9: Copp 4-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Copp
2
1
Copp
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Copp
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Copp
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (693)
50.7% (879)
+3.6%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
58.6% (162)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (57)
43.4% (198)
+2.2%
On even strength, Copp has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Copp is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Copp shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Copp
Nelson
Home
54.4% (408)
52.3% (621)
Away
53.4% (410)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Copp
Nelson
P1
53.3%
48.4%
P2
54.1%
53.5%
P3
54.9%
50.3%
OT
20.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
60.8%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |