Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Copp on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Copp wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 81.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 67.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 68.1%
31.9%
68.1%
Copp
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Copp
Hertl
Last 6: Copp 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Copp
2
1
Copp
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Copp
2
1
Copp
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (833)
57.0% (718)
-2.9%
Power Play
77.5% (40)
64.9% (188)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (128)
44.2% (77)
-2.0%
On power play, Copp has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Copp is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (606).
Copp shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Copp
Hertl
Home
51.9% (511)
59.2% (463)
Away
55.3% (490)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Copp
Hertl
P1
54.1%
56.3%
P2
54.2%
55.4%
P3
52.5%
60.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
53.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |