Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.0% vs Tkachuk 56.0% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 78.7%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 84.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 55.5%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Cirelli
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cirelli
Tkachuk
Last 6: Cirelli 3-3 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
0
3
Cirelli
Tkachuk
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Tkachuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Tkachuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (600)
56.8% (139)
-6.5%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
60.6% (94)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
100.0% (1)
-63.5%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +63.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Cirelli shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Tkachuk
Home
54.2% (395)
50.4% (121)
Away
44.8% (496)
67.3% (113)
By Period
Cirelli
Tkachuk
P1
50.3%
57.1%
P2
50.0%
60.0%
P3
46.9%
58.3%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
48.0%▼
53.0%
48.9%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:19 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |