Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cirelli wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Nelson 49.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 67.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Cirelli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Cirelli
Nelson
Last 10: Cirelli 4-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Cirelli
Nelson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Cirelli
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
49.9% (840)
-3.5%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
52.8% (89)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
28.6% (35)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Cirelli is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Cirelli shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nelson
Home
46.7% (478)
49.8% (458)
Away
46.4% (470)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Cirelli
Nelson
P1
46.6%
50.1%
P2
48.6%
45.4%
P3
44.3%
52.7%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 09:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:05 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |