Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Nelson 45.8% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 11-1 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 52.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 76.6%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 63.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Cirelli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
1
(12 meetings)
11
1
Cirelli
Nelson
Last 10: Cirelli 10-0 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
6
0
Cirelli
Nelson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
1
Cirelli
Nelson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
46.1% (735)
+4.8%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
34.5% (29)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
30.4% (23)
+13.6%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Cirelli is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Cirelli shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nelson
Home
50.6% (494)
48.7% (419)
Away
47.6% (441)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Cirelli
Nelson
P1
52.3%
44.6%
P2
45.4%
47.3%
P3
49.5%
43.0%
OT
62.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:30 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 15:45 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 09:02 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |