Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 51.2% vs Nelson 47.5% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 80.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 54.8%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Cirelli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Cirelli
Nelson
Last 7: Cirelli 5-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Cirelli
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (585)
46.9% (915)
+5.2%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
57.4% (94)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
25.0% (28)
+21.5%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Cirelli is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Cirelli shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nelson
Home
52.4% (462)
48.9% (521)
Away
50.1% (369)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Cirelli
Nelson
P1
50.7%
45.9%
P2
49.6%
48.0%
P3
53.3%
48.0%
OT
61.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.5%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
51.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 09:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |