Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.4% vs Nazar 45.7% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 62.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 81.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 68.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Cirelli
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Cirelli
Nazar
Last 10: Cirelli 6-4 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
3
Cirelli
Nazar
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
6
0
Cirelli
Nazar
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Nazar
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (5,684)
46.1% (866)
+3.7%
Power Play
56.9% (571)
46.5% (172)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,196)
33.3% (69)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Cirelli is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,851).
Cirelli shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nazar
Home
49.6% (3,763)
44.2% (536)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
46.4% (571)
By Period
Cirelli
Nazar
P1
49.9%
47.3%
P2
48.8%
42.0%
P3
49.2%
46.0%
OT
51.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.9%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.3%
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | OT | 02:37 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 23, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 03:23 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:36 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:06 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:20 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |