Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Cirelli wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Pavelski 51.8% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 75.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 73.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 80.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 75.2%
24.8%
75.2%
Cirelli
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
4
(17 meetings)
13
4
Cirelli
Pavelski
Last 10: Cirelli 8-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
2
Cirelli
Pavelski
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
8
1
Cirelli
Pavelski
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (372)
53.5% (508)
-3.8%
Power Play
59.5% (37)
51.7% (118)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
37.7% (53)
41.4% (70)
-3.7%
On power play, Cirelli has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cirelli is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Cirelli shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (533).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Pavelski
Home
47.5% (217)
54.3% (372)
Away
50.6% (245)
49.4% (324)
By Period
Cirelli
Pavelski
P1
55.0%
48.7%
P2
44.8%
57.7%
P3
46.2%
50.2%
OT
80.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 14:56 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:31 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 01:55 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 10:36 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 07:54 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |