Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 55.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 51.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Cirelli
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Cirelli
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Cirelli
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
51.5% (594)
-0.6%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
51.7% (87)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
28.6% (14)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cirelli is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Cirelli shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Pavelski
Home
50.6% (494)
53.1% (339)
Away
47.6% (441)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Cirelli
Pavelski
P1
52.3%
53.8%
P2
45.4%
47.8%
P3
49.5%
50.2%
OT
62.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 10:23 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |