Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 59.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 70.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.0%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Cirelli
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Cirelli
Pavelski
Last 10: Cirelli 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
3
Cirelli
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
52.5% (570)
-6.1%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
54.5% (145)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
44.4% (36)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cirelli is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Cirelli shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Pavelski
Home
46.7% (478)
55.0% (391)
Away
46.4% (470)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Cirelli
Pavelski
P1
46.6%
50.8%
P2
48.6%
55.0%
P3
44.3%
52.0%
OT
44.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 03:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |