Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.2%). Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 61.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 80.1%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 61.3%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Cirelli
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Cirelli
Schmaltz
Last 9: Cirelli 6-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
3
Cirelli
Schmaltz
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
0
Cirelli
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
48.1% (268)
+1.8%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
50.5% (91)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
58.8% (17)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Cirelli is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Cirelli shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Schmaltz
Home
46.7% (649)
49.0% (206)
Away
53.5% (643)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Cirelli
Schmaltz
P1
50.1%
53.6%
P2
51.1%
46.2%
P3
48.5%
50.4%
OT
64.3%
16.7%
Final 5 min
49.7%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:04 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 13:47 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:22 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:11 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |