Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Aho 50.0% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 69.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 61.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 51.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Cirelli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Cirelli
Aho
Last 10: Cirelli 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
2
Cirelli
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
3
Cirelli
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
49.9% (851)
+0.5%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
53.5% (144)
+16.4%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
43.3% (60)
-6.8%
On power play, Cirelli has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Aho
Home
54.2% (395)
53.2% (554)
Away
45.0% (509)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Cirelli
Aho
P1
50.8%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
50.8%
P3
46.6%
49.7%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:47 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |