Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Aho 54.9% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 70.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 73.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 54.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Cirelli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Cirelli
Aho
Last 10: Cirelli 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
2
Cirelli
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Cirelli
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
54.5% (870)
-4.6%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
62.4% (266)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
37.1% (62)
+11.6%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Aho
Home
46.7% (649)
53.9% (603)
Away
53.5% (643)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Cirelli
Aho
P1
50.1%
54.1%
P2
51.1%
55.0%
P3
48.5%
57.4%
OT
64.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.7%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |