Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Aho 52.4% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 64.3%
Defensive zone
Aho 62.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 68.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Cirelli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Cirelli
Aho
Last 6: Cirelli 5-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
0
Cirelli
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (372)
52.4% (622)
-2.7%
Power Play
59.5% (37)
60.7% (28)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
37.7% (53)
52.4% (42)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cirelli is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Cirelli shoots left. Aho is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Aho
Home
47.5% (217)
54.9% (359)
Away
50.6% (245)
50.5% (333)
By Period
Cirelli
Aho
P1
55.0%
51.6%
P2
44.8%
53.3%
P3
46.2%
52.7%
OT
80.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.9%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
49.1%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 18:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 15:24 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 01:39 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 3 | 01:56 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |