Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundell on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundell wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 54.4% vs Hertl 56.8% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Lundell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lundell
Hertl
Last 5: Lundell 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
2
1
Lundell
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lundell
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (768)
57.0% (718)
-2.7%
Power Play
65.6% (61)
64.9% (188)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (49)
44.2% (77)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Lundell has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lundell is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Lundell shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Lundell
Hertl
Home
57.3% (450)
59.2% (463)
Away
52.3% (428)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Lundell
Hertl
P1
54.3%
56.3%
P2
58.2%
55.4%
P3
52.0%
60.5%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
54.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 19:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:14 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |