Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Lundell wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 52.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.6%
Defensive zone
Lundell 58.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Lundell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lundell
Hertl
Last 7: Lundell 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Lundell
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (804)
54.1% (717)
+0.5%
Power Play
50.6% (81)
61.9% (210)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
58.1% (31)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lundell is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (701).
Lundell shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Lundell
Hertl
Home
51.2% (527)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.8% (496)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Lundell
Hertl
P1
53.7%
57.1%
P2
51.7%
54.0%
P3
54.1%
56.6%
OT
20.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |