Auston Matthews vs Barrett Hayton
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hayton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Hayton 53.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 72.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 55.2%
Neutral zone
Hayton 66.5%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Matthews
Hayton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Matthews
Hayton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
0
3
Matthews
Hayton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Hayton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hayton
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
52.6% (817)
+5.7%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
63.3% (139)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
53.1% (64)
-2.4%
On power play, Hayton has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayton shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hayton
Home
59.1% (528)
53.9% (516)
Away
55.1% (695)
54.4% (504)
By Period
Matthews
Hayton
P1
56.2%
55.1%
P2
58.1%
55.0%
P3
56.4%
51.7%
OT
50.0%
69.2%
Final 5 min
55.5%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | OT | 03:11 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |