Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Point shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Point 48.7% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Point 55.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 81.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 54.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Matthews
Point
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Matthews
Point
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Point
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
3
5
Matthews
Point
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Point
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Point
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Point
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
47.8% (736)
+10.5%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
51.0% (143)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
71.4% (7)
-20.7%
On penalty kill, Point has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Point shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Point is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (706).
Home / Away
Matthews
Point
Home
59.1% (528)
49.7% (471)
Away
55.1% (695)
47.2% (415)
By Period
Matthews
Point
P1
56.2%
46.6%
P2
58.1%
51.7%
P3
56.4%
46.5%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:07 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 02:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 17:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:31 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Brayden Point |