Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Coyle 51.5% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 20-12 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 50.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 78.1%
Neutral zone
Coyle 65.3%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Matthews
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
20
(32 meetings)
12
20
Matthews
Coyle
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Coyle
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
13
Matthews
Coyle
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Matthews
Coyle
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
53.0% (1,046)
+0.4%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.6% (144)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
43.6% (287)
-1.7%
On power play, Matthews has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Coyle is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,181).
Home / Away
Matthews
Coyle
Home
56.5% (703)
54.5% (719)
Away
50.0% (616)
48.8% (758)
By Period
Matthews
Coyle
P1
52.1%
51.1%
P2
54.0%
50.0%
P3
54.0%
53.3%
OT
57.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.6%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:17 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:16 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 11:31 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 03:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:07 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 06:25 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:24 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 2, 2023 | OT | 00:45 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |