Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tierney shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Tierney 49.8% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.4%
Defensive zone
Tierney 69.1%
Neutral zone
Tierney 55.8%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Matthews
Tierney
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
Tierney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Tierney
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Tierney
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tierney
0
1
Matthews
Tierney
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tierney
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
50.4% (454)
+5.9%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
48.3% (58)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
36.8% (19)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tierney shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Tierney is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tierney
Home
60.7% (572)
53.3% (289)
Away
52.4% (657)
45.5% (242)
By Period
Matthews
Tierney
P1
60.3%
50.9%
P2
55.6%
46.7%
P3
53.3%
52.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:14 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |