Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Giroux shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Giroux 60.4% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 62.3%
Defensive zone
Giroux 58.3%
Neutral zone
Giroux 58.6%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Matthews
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Matthews
Giroux
Last 5: Matthews 3-2 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Giroux
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Giroux
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
59.6% (606)
-1.3%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
69.3% (150)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
61.4% (220)
-10.7%
On power play, Giroux has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Giroux is 60.3% vs left-shot opponents (756).
Home / Away
Matthews
Giroux
Home
59.1% (528)
65.7% (461)
Away
55.1% (695)
57.7% (515)
By Period
Matthews
Giroux
P1
56.2%
60.7%
P2
58.1%
63.7%
P3
56.4%
60.2%
OT
50.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
55.5%
63.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
61.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |