Auston Matthews vs Evan Rodrigues
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Rodrigues shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Rodrigues 47.3% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 85.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 85.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 82.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.4%
85.4%
14.6%
Matthews
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Matthews
Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Rodrigues
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Rodrigues
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
47.9% (637)
+11.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
47.9% (71)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
37.3% (67)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Matthews
Rodrigues
Home
60.0% (520)
48.3% (429)
Away
59.3% (452)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Matthews
Rodrigues
P1
60.2%
48.3%
P2
58.2%
46.9%
P3
60.4%
45.6%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |