Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Drury on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Drury shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Drury 57.7% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 60.5%
Defensive zone
Drury 66.7%
Neutral zone
Drury 59.3%
Result
Jack Drury favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Matthews
Drury
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Drury
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Drury
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drury
1
2
Matthews
Drury
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Drury
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Drury
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
61.2% (667)
-1.4%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
40.0% (10)
+24.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
49.0% (157)
+7.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Drury shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Drury is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Matthews
Drury
Home
60.0% (520)
59.2% (407)
Away
59.3% (452)
58.1% (427)
By Period
Matthews
Drury
P1
60.2%
59.0%
P2
58.2%
57.7%
P3
60.4%
59.1%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Drury
64.0%▲
56.0%
58.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:41 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jack Drury |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Jack Drury |