Scouting Report
Jack Drury holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Drury shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Drury 57.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Drury leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 70.0%
Defensive zone
Drury 61.3%
Neutral zone
Drury 53.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Matthews
Drury
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Matthews
Drury
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Drury
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
Drury
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drury
1
3
Matthews
Drury
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Drury
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
58.0% (1,975)
-4.0%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
58.5% (118)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
52.1% (292)
-2.3%
On even strength, Drury has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Drury shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Drury is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,565).
Home / Away
Matthews
Drury
Home
56.3% (5,065)
58.3% (1,212)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
56.3% (1,173)
By Period
Matthews
Drury
P1
55.5%
56.0%
P2
53.3%
58.6%
P3
52.8%
57.0%
OT
56.6%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Drury
64.0%▲
56.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:41 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jack Drury |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Jack Drury |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jack Drury |