Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 68.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 67.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 67.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Matthews
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Matthews
Pavelski
Last 6: Matthews 1-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Matthews
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Matthews
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
51.3% (643)
-5.1%
Power Play
53.6% (125)
58.1% (172)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
46.3% (41)
-32.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Matthews is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Matthews shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pavelski
Home
48.4% (562)
53.8% (431)
Away
45.3% (570)
51.1% (425)
By Period
Matthews
Pavelski
P1
51.3%
48.4%
P2
44.5%
52.0%
P3
44.6%
55.6%
OT
55.6%
80.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 14:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 18:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 08:23 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 09:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |