Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 53.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 51.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Matthews
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Matthews
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
52.3% (560)
+0.4%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
57.5% (113)
-22.9%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
62.5% (16)
+12.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pavelski
Home
54.8% (515)
54.2% (360)
Away
50.2% (534)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Matthews
Pavelski
P1
54.4%
54.5%
P2
50.4%
56.7%
P3
51.8%
50.8%
OT
75.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |