Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 52.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 56.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Matthews
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Matthews
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Matthews
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
51.5% (594)
+1.9%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
51.7% (87)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
28.6% (14)
+13.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pavelski
Home
56.5% (703)
53.1% (339)
Away
50.0% (616)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Matthews
Pavelski
P1
52.1%
53.8%
P2
54.0%
47.8%
P3
54.0%
50.2%
OT
57.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
54.6%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |